Where the India Australia trade deal stands in 2026

For the first time on record, people born in India are the largest overseas-born group in Australia. The Australian Bureau of Statistics counted 971,020 India-born residents as at 30 June 2025, moving past England after four years of steady growth. That milestone sits on top of a trade relationship that has grown quickly since the two countries switched on their first agreement, which is why what happens next in the negotiating room matters well beyond exporters.

What ECTA has actually delivered

The Australia-India Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement, known as ECTA, entered into force on 29 December 2022, roughly eight months after it was signed on 2 April 2022. According to the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, tariffs on more than 85 per cent of Australian goods exports to India were removed the day the deal started, with another 5 per cent phased to zero over two, four or six years. All up, DFAT says Indian tariffs on more than 90 per cent of Australian goods exports by value are being eliminated. India’s commerce ministry recorded the same in-force date.

The figures have moved with it. DFAT data puts two-way trade at about A$53 billion in 2024, with Australian exports to India worth A$35.5 billion and imports A$17.5 billion. Law firm Clayton Utz, writing after the 2026 leaders’ meeting, put trade in goods and services at roughly A$54.4 billion in 2024-25. Both governments hold a target of A$100 billion in two-way trade by 2030.

Where CECA negotiations stand

ECTA was always meant to be a first step. The larger deal, the Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement, or CECA, would go deeper into services, investment, government procurement and the farm goods left out of the interim pact. DFAT records that talks first began in 2011, stalled in 2016, and restarted in September 2021. More than ten formal rounds have been held since, with a joint stocktake in New Delhi in December 2024, but no signature.

Momentum returned in mid-2026. Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Australia on 9 July 2026 and, alongside Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, agreed to speed up CECA talks. Addressing the Australia-India CEO Forum in Melbourne, Modi pressed for an early conclusion. No firm signing date has been set.

The sticking points

The hold-up is familiar. Reuters reported in July 2025 that dairy and wine tariffs were the main obstacles as a year-end deadline loomed, with a senior Indian official quoted ruling out further cuts because of the effect on farmers and India’s young wine industry. That deadline passed without a deal. Analyst Lam Duc Vu, writing for Asia Times in July 2026, argued the security side of the relationship keeps advancing while trade stays stuck, because farm politics in India and workforce debates in Australia are harder to move.

What it means for students and skilled workers

For the diaspora, the mobility provisions count as much as the tariff schedule. Under ECTA side arrangements, Indian graduates receive extended post-study work rights in Australia. As reported in November 2025, that means two years for a bachelor degree, three years for a bachelor with first-class honours in STEM or ICT, three years for a master degree and four years for a PhD.

Separately, the Mobility Arrangement for Talented Early-professionals Scheme, or MATES, opened as the centrepiece of the two countries’ Migration and Mobility Partnership. Announced on 16 October 2024, MATES offers 3,000 places a year, allocated by ballot, to graduates of leading Indian universities in fields such as renewable energy, mining, engineering, ICT, artificial intelligence, financial technology and agricultural technology. Successful applicants can live and work in Australia for up to two years on a subclass 403 visa.

What it means for exporters and business

Sector detail is where diaspora-owned businesses find the openings. DFAT records that Australian wine over US$5 a bottle saw its Indian tariff fall from 150 per cent to 100 per cent on entry into force, heading to 50 per cent over nine years, while wine over US$15 dropped from 150 per cent to 75 per cent, heading to 25 per cent. Sheepmeat tariffs of 30 per cent went to zero immediately, wool was locked at zero, and coal and critical minerals such as copper, nickel and cobalt lost their tariffs on day one.

Services were part of the pitch too. DFAT lists India as Australia’s third-largest services export market, and education is central to it. The Sanskriti IAS current-affairs brief puts Australia’s education exports to India at about A$4.4 billion in 2022 and Indian student numbers at around 120,000 in early 2024.

What to watch next

The July 2026 meeting did more than restart trade talks. Modi and Albanese signed an arrangement clearing the way for Australian uranium exports to India, launched a partnership on cyber and critical technologies, and agreed to a critical minerals corridor, according to reporting by The Tribune and DD India.

The honest read for 2026 is that the strategic relationship is running ahead of the commercial one. ECTA has delivered real, measurable tariff relief and a mobility framework that thousands of Indian graduates already use. CECA is the bigger prize, and it is still caught on dairy and wine. For diaspora exporters, students and workers, the signal to watch is whether the political will shown in Melbourne finally reaches the negotiating table, and whether a signing date lands before the 2030 trade target starts to look optimistic.

Related reading: beyond the model minority and Australia’s 295,000 student cap.